Category Archives: Sellers

Predictions for 2012

I’m catching up on my Internet reading after a couple of days off for the Christmas holiday. It seems everyone is making their predictions for 2012. There are predictions for the real estate market, for the stock market, for the USA elections, and for the global upheavals.

How’s this … my prediction is that everyone will be wrong.

As we learned in 2011, all these issues are closely tied together. A blurp in one results in a blurp in another. “For every action, there is a reaction.”

Naturally, the people I associate with are most interested in what the real estate market will do. Will it be better, flat or worse? The latest data that I read said that 2011 was the worst year ever. Real estate “experts” are making their predictions. I doubt that their predictions are any more reliable than my predictions would be. There are simply too many variables.

Most of those variables are reliant on the Federal government’s policies, which haven’t been positive for recovery of the real estate industry. I know a lot of Realtors® who are becoming more politically active to help change or fight for programs that will improve the opportunity for our clients to buy or sell their homes.

Realtors® have a unique job where we become more emotionally attached to our clients. Yes, we make our income by selling a home, but we (or at least a lot of us) really care about the people we’re working with and we try to do the best job we can to help them. The politicians, via their policies or increased regulations, have made that job much more difficult in recent years.

While shopping for Christmas groceries, I met a fellow agent and naturally we talked about business. She mainly works with relo clients – those transferring due to a new job or a promotion. Her business is down because (1) companies can’t afford to move employees around the country as they used to do, and (2) employees are less likely to want to move due to the difficulty of selling their current home, especially if it will be at a loss.

She is currently working with a client who has been offered a promotion that requires him to move from Atlanta to the Columbus area. Apparently, the Atlanta housing market is worse than here, so that the severe loss he will incur on his current home versus the price he would pay for a home here, even with the increased promotion pay, has led him to turn down the promotion. The negative implications of that decision, will impact his long-term earning power, plus, it means at least two fewer home sales. I believe the National Association of Realtors® has said that for every 3 homes sold, one job is created. Multiply this Atlanta executive’s thought process by thousands across the country, and you begin to get a feel for the difficulty the real estate market is having.

protestorSo here’s my 2012 prediction: Watch the news … you may see your favorite Realtor® in an upcoming political protest. We’ve been beat up the past few years and we’re “not going to take it anymore”. :-)

Are You Going To Challenge Your Property Tax Re-Evaluation?

Have you received your county’s Property Tax Re-Evaluation? Delaware County has been sending them out the past week. I believe Franklin County sent theirs a little earlier. Most values are expected to decline based on the housing market declines the past three years. I received my letter yesterday which had a “tentative” decline.

So how do you feel about the new valuation?

Since I’m not planning to sell, I don’t care about the value so much and am willing to hopefully lower my property taxes. I also know that the floor plan being used by the Auditor understates the sq ft because it doesn’t reflect two 2-ft bump-outs along the side and entire back of the home. I’ve refi’d once and am in the process of doing so again, so I have the more correct measurement from those appraisers that I can use if/when I sell. The appraisal that was done for my current refi was on target and 6% higher than the Auditor’s new assessed value.

Market Value Really Reflects Assessed Value

What bothers me most is that Auditors tend to use the term “market value”. When we’ve had meetings with Auditors at the Columbus Board, we challenged them on the use of that term because it has no bearing on what a buyer would pay for the home. It’s merely a value used to assess taxes. Let’s face it, two homes can look very similar from the outside and be entirely different on the inside for condition and amenities offered.

When You Might Want A Lowered Value

There is a possibility that a homeowner might want their value to be even lower. Auditors do not use short sales or foreclosures when calculating the reassessed values. Some newer subdivisions have been hit hard with these type of sales because those new-build buyers often paid top dollar with little money down. Having too many of those sales can bring down the selling price of “regular” homes. It’s possible that the Auditor’s value might need to be reduced further to reflect the short sales/foreclosures if there have been a lot of them.

Hire An Appraiser Or Realtor® For Help

If you need to gather specific housing stats to challenge your assessment, you can hire an appraiser or ask your favorite Realtor®. Both have access to the MLS and can identify which homes were “arms length” transactions and which were short sales or foreclosures. Plus, the MLS data allows you to compare the inside of the homes, assuming the listing agent took interior photos.

Schools Can Challenge Your Value

Did you know school districts can challenge your lower value? The lower home values may result in fewer tax revenues for the schools. Schools are allowed to challenge the value, although I’m told they “tend” to do that more so for commercial property rather than residential because homeowners are voters.

So, will you be challenging your new assessed value?

Copyright © 2011. Elaine Reese, Real Living HER. Reproduction of any portion of this blog post or the images is prohibited by the Digital Millennium Copyright Act. If this post is being viewed on any site other than www.ReesesPiecesOfRealEstate.com then the material has been stolen without permission. Violators will be reported.

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Fall Home Sales in the Olentangy School District

The last Quarter of 2011 is upon us. What might we expect in the real estate market? I’m seeing a lot of price reductions as home sellers hope to get their home in contract this month. I’ve seen homes priced in the $200′s reduce their price by $20- 30K. The decreases are even heftier for higher priced homes. With interest rates hovering around 4%, if you’re ready to buy, now may be the time to act. Doing so will mean you can be in your new home by the holidays.

I pulled the numbers from the Columbus Board of Realtors® MLS system for seasonal sales for just the Olentangy school district area of southern Delaware County. I suspect other areas might be similar.

This first chart shows the average price of the homes sold Jan-Sep (green bars) vs Oct-Dec (orange bars) since 2006. It really illustrates the severity the downturn in the housing market had on prices. 2010 was propped up somewhat by the Gov’t Tax Credits which may have allowed buyers to afford slightly higher priced homes. Of course, 2011 has been a crazy year, so it appears buyers became a little more conservative with their spending.

Fall 2011 Avg $ for homes sold in Olentangy school district, Delaware County Ohio

Click graph to enlarge

Same type of info but the chart below illustrates the NUMBER of homes sold. The small percentage of homes sold in the 4th Qtr is the reason I’m seeing so many price reductions now as home sellers hope to get their home in-contract during October, knowing there is less chance of that happening during the holiday months of Nov-Dec or the snow months of Jan-Feb.

Fall 2011 for homes sold in Olentangy school district, Delaware County Ohio

Click graph to enlarge

As for the number of homes currently for sale in the Olentangy area, there are 601 homes with an average price of $429,153. (Houston, we have a $100K problem!) Of those homes that are currently in-contract today, there are 135 with an average price of $348,618, which is closer to the average price of the homes sold so far this year. Historically, around 200 homes have been sold in the fall period so it’s likely there will be some disappointed sellers. Perhaps it’s time to sharpen the pencil.

Copyright © 2011. Elaine Reese, Real Living HER. Reproduction of any portion of this blog post or the images is prohibited by the Digital Millennium Copyright Act. If this post is being viewed on any site other than www.ReesesPiecesOfRealEstate.com then the material has been stolen without permission. Violators will be reported.

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I’m curling up into my prenatal position now … tell me when it’s over.

Failing economyOn Monday of this week, I wrote about the possibility of future mortgage rates rising in the wake of the S&P downgrade. Well, as we all know the stock market went down - up – down – up - that left many of us feeling like we had vertigo.

The experts told us that this market is different from 2008 because it’s being triggered by a lack of confidence in our Washington politicians whereas 2008 was a problem with the banks.  So much is uncertain with what policies or programs the folks in D.C. will come up with, that companies and regular citizens can’t plan for their future.

Apparently in an attempt to assuage some portion of the uncertainty, Bernanke made a statement that the mortgage rates would be held low until mid-2013. (Read CNN’s article)

So-o-o … “maybe” it’s OK to disregard what I said on Monday … except that it still may be a good time to buy a home if you have a good credit rating, have a job, and have some down payment savings. But then again, I could be wrong … I’m not really certain. GEESH!

What Happens If Mortgage Interest Rates Increase

What a week we had last week in the stock market, and with the S&P downgrade, this week is likely to be just as disconcerting since Moody’s just announced they are watching this Administration’s actions carefully as well. The full ramifications for us “average citizens” is yet to be determined, however, there is concern that interest rates might rise for mortgages, car loans and credit cards.

What difference can a mortgage rate rise mean to you?

The average interest rate for a 30-yr fixed loan in June 2011 was 4.5%. If that average increases only 1.4% (to 6.5% interest) that can equal a 25% increase to your payment amount or it can mean that you’ll have to shop for a lower priced home if maintaining a certain mortgage amount is critical to you being approved for the loan.

Homeowners, who have a home for sale, may want to consider lowering their price to get their home in contract now, so they can buy at the lower interest rates we have now. A price decrease on your current home may cost you less than the interest rate increase on your next home.

Impact of Mortgage Payment for 3 Home Prices @ two interest rates
  $200,000 $300,000 $400,000
Loan @ 20% down $160,000 $240,000 $320,000
4.5% rate $811.20 $1,216.80 $1,516.80
6.5% rate $1,011.20 $1,516.80 $2,022.40
Extra Paid/Yr $2,400 $3,600 $4,800
Extra Paid/5 Yrs $12,000 $18,000 $24,000

Now’s a good time to buy

OK, you often hear that phrase from Realtors® and from the National Association of Realtors® TV ads. If you doubt it, take a look at this chart of the mortgage rates since 1972. Notice that the average rate for 1972-2010 was 8.92%. Think about how much more home you can purchase at today’s current rates vs how much you might have to  drop down in price if rates were to return to the nearly 9% average rate. I’ve purchased homes in ’72, ’76, ’85, ’95, and ’97 so I know what a difference the higher rates can mean.

Historical mortgage rates 1972-2010

Click to enlarge

If you want to see if you can afford to buy now, call Pam Mahon, Home Mortgage Consultant with Real Living Mortgage at 614-273-6366. She’ll walk you through your options to tell you what price of home you can be approved to buy.

Other news you need …

As Washington tries to work us out of this mess, keep a watch on their discussions about cutting the mortgage interest deduction (often referred to as MID) that we currently can take on on Fed Tax Forms. Some politicians want it to be eliminated completely while others suggest elimination only on more expensive homes ($500,000 has been bantered about). “Washington-speak” may call that a “loophole”, but it’s a tax increase for us citizens. The National Association of Realtors® is working hard to fight this elimination because it removes even more money from people’s wallets.

Copyright © 2011. Elaine Reese, Real Living HER. Reproduction of any portion of this blog post or the images is prohibited by the Digital Millennium Copyright Act. If this post is being viewed on any site other than www.ReesesPiecesOfRealEstate.com then the material has been stolen without permission. Violators will be reported.

Jan-Jun 2011 home sales reports

Wondering how home prices are holding up for your area? I just finished updating two data pieces to reflect Jan-Jun 2011 home sales. One chart shows sales by school district; the other shows sales by key subdivision within various suburbs. Click the links below to visit those pages.

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