Category Archives: Housing stats

Luxury Home Sales Were Down in 2011

With so much discussion on the “have & have-nots”, I’ve updated my report on the Luxury homes that were sold in 2011. Bottom line, fewer such homes ($1 million plus) were sold this past year and the prices were lower of those that did sell.

million $ homes sold in 2011 in central ohio
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If you missed your opportunity to buy one of these stellar homes, there are plenty still available for sale:

  • New Albany SD: 14 homes for sale with an average price of $1,656,271. Most expensive home is priced at $4,300,000.
  • Dublin SD: 14 homes for sale with an average price of $1,753,355. Most expensive home is priced at $3,200,000.
  • Olentangy SD: 13 homes for sale with an average price of $2,124,900. Most expensive home is priced at $6,899,700 and it’s been on the market for 681 days!
  • Big Walnut SD: 5 homes for sale with an average price of $2,362,960. Most expensive home is priced at $3,995,000.
  • Arlington SD: 6 homes for sale with an average price of $1,533,166. Most expensive home is priced at $2,200,000.

Read 2010 luxury homes results.

A Decade of Home Sales in Central Ohio

The end of the year means it’s time to look back to see how we did in our local real estate market. Average prices of single-family homes “seem” to have turned the corner in most school districts – some moreso than others.

2002-2011 Avg Prices homes sold for Jan-Dec in central Ohio

Click graph to enlarge, then click again

The discouraging news is the severe downfall in the number of homes sold since 2009. The data for the years 2010 and 2011 includes only “normal” sales and does not include homes sold as a short-sale or REO-owned.

2002-2011 No Homes Sold Jan Dec in central Ohio

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Having the real estate industry get back on its feet is critical to improving the employment rate since the NAR has calculated that one job is created for every 2-3 homes sold. Additionally, people need full-time jobs and decent paying jobs in order to afford a home. Gov Kasich has been laser focused to keep companies in Ohio or bring new businesses here. As such, the state’s unemployment rate has declined since he took office and that may be reflected in the uptick of the number of homes sold in 2011. Hopefully, we’ll continue to see number of homes sold continue to increase for 2012.

Predictions for 2012

I’m catching up on my Internet reading after a couple of days off for the Christmas holiday. It seems everyone is making their predictions for 2012. There are predictions for the real estate market, for the stock market, for the USA elections, and for the global upheavals.

How’s this … my prediction is that everyone will be wrong.

As we learned in 2011, all these issues are closely tied together. A blurp in one results in a blurp in another. “For every action, there is a reaction.”

Naturally, the people I associate with are most interested in what the real estate market will do. Will it be better, flat or worse? The latest data that I read said that 2011 was the worst year ever. Real estate “experts” are making their predictions. I doubt that their predictions are any more reliable than my predictions would be. There are simply too many variables.

Most of those variables are reliant on the Federal government’s policies, which haven’t been positive for recovery of the real estate industry. I know a lot of Realtors® who are becoming more politically active to help change or fight for programs that will improve the opportunity for our clients to buy or sell their homes.

Realtors® have a unique job where we become more emotionally attached to our clients. Yes, we make our income by selling a home, but we (or at least a lot of us) really care about the people we’re working with and we try to do the best job we can to help them. The politicians, via their policies or increased regulations, have made that job much more difficult in recent years.

While shopping for Christmas groceries, I met a fellow agent and naturally we talked about business. She mainly works with relo clients – those transferring due to a new job or a promotion. Her business is down because (1) companies can’t afford to move employees around the country as they used to do, and (2) employees are less likely to want to move due to the difficulty of selling their current home, especially if it will be at a loss.

She is currently working with a client who has been offered a promotion that requires him to move from Atlanta to the Columbus area. Apparently, the Atlanta housing market is worse than here, so that the severe loss he will incur on his current home versus the price he would pay for a home here, even with the increased promotion pay, has led him to turn down the promotion. The negative implications of that decision, will impact his long-term earning power, plus, it means at least two fewer home sales. I believe the National Association of Realtors® has said that for every 3 homes sold, one job is created. Multiply this Atlanta executive’s thought process by thousands across the country, and you begin to get a feel for the difficulty the real estate market is having.

protestorSo here’s my 2012 prediction: Watch the news … you may see your favorite Realtor® in an upcoming political protest. We’ve been beat up the past few years and we’re “not going to take it anymore”. :-)

NAR Reveals Housing Sales Lower Than Reported Due To Errors

This week the National Association of Realtors announced that the data they’ve been releasing on home sales has been flawed – mainly understated – by possibly as much as 20% lower than previously reported. They said they will recalculate the data going back to 2007. The national news/business TV shows have reported on this because it will mean the housing decline will be much worse than earlier thought. So be prepared when you hear more about it.

NAR indicated a problem with areas where an agent might belong to two MLS’s and posts their listing in both MLS’s. Denver and Colorado Springs were mentioned, but there are high population areas – East Coast – where an agent needs to belong to more than one MLS in order to capture all potential buyers. When that ONE house sells, its sale is recorded in both systems so the sale is overstated.

The NAR also said there may be a problem with new-builds being double counted since they sometimes are listed in the MLS but the builder reports the sale as well. We have that issue here, since builder spec homes are often placed in the MLS. Even if the builder hasn’t put the home in the MLS, the agent who sells the home can enter it in after the sale in order to record a sale for that agent. Again, this would result in double counting for any report that has obtained data from the builders as well as the MLS.

Our own local Board (CBR) often issues reports by zip code. I’ve previously written why that is not a good move because many of our zip codes cross school district lines. Home buyers tend to want to buy homes according to the schools. To illustrate how the data can vary, let’s consider Powell’s zip code – 43065 – which primarily is southwest Delaware County, but it also extends down into Franklin County in the Smokey Row/Hard Rd area. There is a wide difference in the homes and prices in the entire zip code.

For Jan-Nov 2011, in the entire zip code of 43065 (excluding short sales, REO’s, foreclosures, condos), there were 377 homes sold at an average price of $347,114. But if we view it by the four school districts found within the 43065 zip, here’s how the numbers shake out:

  • Olentangy SD: 265 homes at average sale price of $394,425.
  • New Builds in Olentangy SD: 8 homes at average price of $438,264.
  • Buckeye Valley SD: 43 homes at average price of $291,400. (mainly an area around & part of Scioto Reserve)
  • Dublin SD: 24 homes at average price of $285,285. (primarily Shawnee Hills and Summit View Woods in Franklin County)
  • Worthington SD: 45 homes at average price of $154,717. (Franklin County around Smokey Row/Hard Rd)

This is why I don’t use the NAR or CBR data for any of my reports on this blog. There are just too many misleading nuances. Real estate is local and if one doesn’t know about or understand the specific points of a given area, the public can really be misled.

NAR Issues 2011 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers

The 2011 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers survey results has just been published. My take-away from the stats is that people are returning to a little more conservatism in their purchase habits. That is a good thing given the rather reckless spending that occurred in the early part of the decade that ultimately led to people losing their homes.

  • 78% believe their home is a good investment and 45% believe it’s better than stocks.

First-Time Buyers

  • Median age was 31. Median income was $62,400, up from $59,900 in the 2010 survey.
  • They typically purchased a 1570 sq ft home costing $155,000.
  • Their typical monthly P&I payment was $794.
  • Their median down payment was 5%.

Repeat Buyers

  • Median age was 53. Median income was $96,600, up from $87,000 in the 2010 survey.
  • They typically purchased a 2100 sq ft home costing $219,500.
  • Their typical monthly P&I payment was $1006.
  • Their median down payment was 15%.

All Buyers Collectively

  • 64% are married couples; 18% are single women; 10% are single men; 7% are unmarried couples; and 1% are “other”.
  • Last year survey results were 58% – 20% – 12% – 8% – 1% respectively. NAR suggests that the increase in married couples points to married couples with their dual incomes being better positioned for a mortgage in the tight credit environment.
  • 77% purchased a single-family home; 9% purchased a condo, 8% bought a townhouse; and 6% bought another type of housing.
  • The typical home had 3 bedrooms and 2 baths.
  • 51% of the homes were in a suburb or subdivision. 18% were in an urban area. 18% were in a small town. 11% were in a rural area. 3% were in a resort/recreational area.
  • 89% used a real estate agent to buy. 7% bought direct from the builder.
  • When asked where they first learned about the home they PURCHASED, 40% replied the Internet; 35% from real estate agent; 11% yard sign/open house; 6% friend/neighbor/relative; 5% home builder; 2% print/newspaper ad; 2% direct from seller; and less than 1% from a home book or magazine.

Details about the survey

NAR mailed an 8-page questionnaire in July/August 2011 to  a national sample of 81,099 home buyers & sellers who purchased their homes between July 2010 thru June 2011. From the sample, there were 5,708 usable responses, giving a 7.3% response rate.

Central Ohio YTD Homes Sold By Schools or Suburbs

I’ve been busy updating the Jan-Sep YTD Homes Sold data on my website and here on my blog. Check out the results for your favorite area:

If you want to buy or sell a home in one of these areas, give me a call for assistance.