Let me start by saying that I don’t believe anyone knows what home prices “will do” in 2011. There are just too many variables and too many national or global events that can have an impact. It also depends on the data the “forecaster” is using and the area the forecaster is considering.
Recently Forbes projected that the Columbus metro area housing prices would see a 2.1% price increase. Columbus was 5th of the 10 markets projected to increase in 2011.
“There really is this segmentation of these markets occurring where the one-size-fits-all national level numbers to represent all numbers really isn’t valid anymore,” notes Alex Villacorta, senior statistician at Clear Capital. “Overall we’re seeing prices start to stabilize going into 2011, but unfortunately some of those markets will stabilize in the downward direction where others will see a sustained recovery.”
Business 1st just released a 2011 projection with a headline that prices “will stink”. Their source was Fiserv, Inc.
Fiserv Inc. reports average home prices in Central Ohio fell 1.5 percent from the third quarter of 2009 through the end of the same period in 2010. Battered homeowners could see those prices sink an additional 2.8 percent by the third quarter this year and, according to Fiserv’s projections, and not begin to turn around until mid-2012.
That’s two totally opposite points-of-view. We all know that all real estate is local. In January, I did a year-end review of 10-Year Average Prices for the area I service. For my service area, I would project that prices may be stable-to-increasing for southern Delaware County (Powell, Lewis Center, Galena) and Dublin. Someone reporting on Hilliard, Westerville or Delaware real estate might have a different viewpoint.
The one thing I DO know is to not pay attention to National numbers. Another good idea is to always look at the source of the data the forecaster is using AND whether there is a motive to skewing the numbers to fit a particular objective.
If real estate is “location, location, location” then quoting data is “challenge, challenge, challenge”.
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