I’m catching up on my Internet reading after a couple of days off for the Christmas holiday. It seems everyone is making their predictions for 2012. There are predictions for the real estate market, for the stock market, for the USA elections, and for the global upheavals.
How’s this … my prediction is that everyone will be wrong.
As we learned in 2011, all these issues are closely tied together. A blurp in one results in a blurp in another. “For every action, there is a reaction.”
Naturally, the people I associate with are most interested in what the real estate market will do. Will it be better, flat or worse? The latest data that I read said that 2011 was the worst year ever. Real estate “experts” are making their predictions. I doubt that their predictions are any more reliable than my predictions would be. There are simply too many variables.
Most of those variables are reliant on the Federal government’s policies, which haven’t been positive for recovery of the real estate industry. I know a lot of Realtors® who are becoming more politically active to help change or fight for programs that will improve the opportunity for our clients to buy or sell their homes.
Realtors® have a unique job where we become more emotionally attached to our clients. Yes, we make our income by selling a home, but we (or at least a lot of us) really care about the people we’re working with and we try to do the best job we can to help them. The politicians, via their policies or increased regulations, have made that job much more difficult in recent years.
While shopping for Christmas groceries, I met a fellow agent and naturally we talked about business. She mainly works with relo clients – those transferring due to a new job or a promotion. Her business is down because (1) companies can’t afford to move employees around the country as they used to do, and (2) employees are less likely to want to move due to the difficulty of selling their current home, especially if it will be at a loss.
She is currently working with a client who has been offered a promotion that requires him to move from Atlanta to the Columbus area. Apparently, the Atlanta housing market is worse than here, so that the severe loss he will incur on his current home versus the price he would pay for a home here, even with the increased promotion pay, has led him to turn down the promotion. The negative implications of that decision, will impact his long-term earning power, plus, it means at least two fewer home sales. I believe the National Association of Realtors® has said that for every 3 homes sold, one job is created. Multiply this Atlanta executive’s thought process by thousands across the country, and you begin to get a feel for the difficulty the real estate market is having.
So here’s my 2012 prediction: Watch the news … you may see your favorite Realtor® in an upcoming political protest. We’ve been beat up the past few years and we’re “not going to take it anymore”. 
You would have to be living under a rock if you haven’t heard at least one Realtor® or mortgage broker say that it’s a good time to buy a home or refi your current mortgage. Like many others, I decided it was time to refi my home’s mortgage. My current loan is at 5-1/8%. My goal on a refi was 4% or lower to make it worthwhile to pay the closing costs. Here’s the process I went through.
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Predictions for 2012
I’m catching up on my Internet reading after a couple of days off for the Christmas holiday. It seems everyone is making their predictions for 2012. There are predictions for the real estate market, for the stock market, for the USA elections, and for the global upheavals.
How’s this … my prediction is that everyone will be wrong.
As we learned in 2011, all these issues are closely tied together. A blurp in one results in a blurp in another. “For every action, there is a reaction.”
Naturally, the people I associate with are most interested in what the real estate market will do. Will it be better, flat or worse? The latest data that I read said that 2011 was the worst year ever. Real estate “experts” are making their predictions. I doubt that their predictions are any more reliable than my predictions would be. There are simply too many variables.
Most of those variables are reliant on the Federal government’s policies, which haven’t been positive for recovery of the real estate industry. I know a lot of Realtors® who are becoming more politically active to help change or fight for programs that will improve the opportunity for our clients to buy or sell their homes.
Realtors® have a unique job where we become more emotionally attached to our clients. Yes, we make our income by selling a home, but we (or at least a lot of us) really care about the people we’re working with and we try to do the best job we can to help them. The politicians, via their policies or increased regulations, have made that job much more difficult in recent years.
While shopping for Christmas groceries, I met a fellow agent and naturally we talked about business. She mainly works with relo clients – those transferring due to a new job or a promotion. Her business is down because (1) companies can’t afford to move employees around the country as they used to do, and (2) employees are less likely to want to move due to the difficulty of selling their current home, especially if it will be at a loss.
She is currently working with a client who has been offered a promotion that requires him to move from Atlanta to the Columbus area. Apparently, the Atlanta housing market is worse than here, so that the severe loss he will incur on his current home versus the price he would pay for a home here, even with the increased promotion pay, has led him to turn down the promotion. The negative implications of that decision, will impact his long-term earning power, plus, it means at least two fewer home sales. I believe the National Association of Realtors® has said that for every 3 homes sold, one job is created. Multiply this Atlanta executive’s thought process by thousands across the country, and you begin to get a feel for the difficulty the real estate market is having.
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Posted in Buyers, Central Ohio, Commentary, Homes, Housing stats, Realtors®, Sellers
Tagged 2012 Predictions, central ohio real estate market news