The answer to that question is “it depends”. How’s that for a non-answer! I looked at sales and absorption rates for just the Olentangy school district, since that’s where most of the sales occur in Delaware County. The “experts” generally consider an absorption rate of 6-7 months to be a stable market. Less than that would be a seller’s market. Over that, of course, would be a buyer’s market.
What I found is that the type of market depends upon the home’s price, at least according to the Active Listings that were available yesterday afternoon when I pulled the numbers from the CBR MLS system.
This chart shows the number of homes sold between Jan-Jun for last year and this year. The ‘% Chg’ column is the year-to-year change of the number of homes sold. The Active Listings reflect the number of homes that were available for purchase yesterday afternoon. The final column shows the number of months it would take to sell the active listings based on the sale rate during the first 6 months. What is not shown are the homes that are currently in-contract.
| Sold Price | Sold 2009 | Sold 2010 | % Chg | Active Listings | Mos to Sell |
| <$200K | 50 | 54 | 8% | 50 | 6 |
| $200′s | 160 | 191 | 19% | 210 | 6 |
| $300′s | 98 | 122 | 24% | 171 | 8 |
| $400′s | 48 | 54 | 13% | 73 | 8 |
| $500′s | 20 | 26 | 30% | 57 | 13 |
| $600′s | 14 | 10 | (29%) | 48 | 29 |
| $700′s | 7 | 9 | 29% | 27 | 18 |
| $800′s | 1 | 2 | 100% | 19 | 57 |
| $900′s | 2 | 2 | - | 9 | 27 |
| +$1,000′s | - | 6 | - | 35 | 35 |
Based on what the chart is telling us, homes priced under $299,999 are in a stable market. In the $300′s thru $400′s, it’s moved just slightly into a buyer’s market. $500,000 and up is definitely a strong buyer’s market.
So how do you use this info? If you’re a buyer interested in a home costing $225,000, it’s probably not wise to submit an offer of 85% of list. You’ll just anger the seller. However, if you’re buying a home over $1,000,000 then “go for it”!
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Are builders giving big breaks in the $500,000+ market as well? Are people accepting bids at 85% of asking or is that just the start of negotiations?
Thanks
The builders in that range may or may not reduce prices unless it’s a spec home they want/need to sell. Even so, they usually prefer to offer an upgrade at no cost in order to maintain the price integrity of the neighborhood.
As for offering 85% on a resale home in the upper price ranges, it could be a starting point, but again, it depends on whether its price is competitive or not, how long it’s been on the market, and the seller’s motivation, etc. Your real estate agent is your best advisor as each home will be unique. He/she will analyze the pricing history, comparatives, amenities, days-on-the-market and recommend a pricing strategy on the home you wish to purchase. Good luck!